How Taliban-led Afghanistan’s shift towards India rattles Pakistan

As India deepens its ties with Taliban-led Afghanistan through development and diplomacy, Pakistan faces the unsettling reality of losing its long-held influence in Kabul

The relationship between India and Afghanistan has always been tense because Pakistan plays a key role in Afghanistan’s politics and security. However, the growing closeness between India and Afghanistan in recent years has raised new concerns for Pakistan, which fears losing its influence in Kabul.

As India builds stronger ties with Afghanistan through development projects and strategic partnerships, Pakistan worries that its position in the region is at risk, especially as Afghanistan’s changing politics give India more chances to strengthen its role.

India’s long-standing engagement with Afghanistan

India’s relationship with Afghanistan has been mainly driven by its goal to support Afghanistan’s sovereignty and development. Over the years, India has provided significant humanitarian aid, infrastructure projects and diplomatic support, which has earned it goodwill among ordinary Afghans. India has been involved in building schools, hospitals, roads and power projects and has consistently called for peace and stability in Afghanistan.

Even after the Taliban took over Kabul in 2021, India’s approach remained practical. While being careful, India has kept a presence in Afghanistan, focussing on humanitarian aid, especially medical supplies and vaccines.

India has also helped with infrastructure projects like the Zaranj-Delaram highway and the Salma Dam, which are vital for Afghanistan’s connectivity and development. These efforts not only show India’s commitment to Afghanistan’s future but also highlight its growing influence in the region.

Pakistan’s historical role and security concerns

For Pakistan, Afghanistan has been a key part of its regional security strategy acting as both a buffer zone and a potential ally in its rivalry with India.

Pakistan has long seen a friendly government in Kabul as crucial for maintaining its strategic depth. This view has led Islamabad to support the Taliban, which it sees as a dependable partner in keeping Afghanistan aligned with its interests, particularly in countering India’s influence.

However, the change in Afghanistan’s foreign policy after the Taliban’s return has caused significant worry for Pakistan. With the Taliban taking a more neutral stance on India and increasing its engagement with New Delhi on trade and infrastructure, Pakistan fears that Afghanistan could soon lean more towards India, weakening Pakistan’s influence.

The growing relationship between India and Afghanistan is seen by Islamabad as a direct challenge to its long-standing position as the main power broker in Kabul.

As noted by Naila Mahsud, a Pakistani political and international relations researcher, in Arab News Afghanistan’s shift in foreign policy—from relying on Pakistan to seeking closer ties with India—is changing the regional dynamics. This has made Pakistan uneasy as it now faces a two-front challenge: maintaining its influence over Kabul while dealing with India’s growing presence in Afghanistan’s political and economic spheres.

Taliban’s pragmatic neutrality and India’s growing role

Since 2021, the Taliban’s foreign policy has been one of cautious pragmatism, trying to engage with both India and Pakistan without upsetting either. This neutrality, though seemingly balanced, is increasingly seen as leaning toward India because of India’s ongoing humanitarian and development efforts in Afghanistan.

A major concern for Pakistan is the growing economic and diplomatic cooperation between India and Afghanistan. Afghanistan has become more dependent on India for development projects and the Taliban has shown little hesitation in accepting India’s aid.

For Pakistan, this marks a sharp contrast to the previous political order when Kabul was more aligned with Islamabad. The Taliban’s openness to working with India, despite its tough stance on many global issues, signals a shift in Afghanistan’s foreign policy that weakens Pakistan’s influence.

Pakistan’s strategic vulnerability is further exposed with India’s development of the Chabahar port in Iran. This port provides Afghanistan with an alternative route to access global markets without needing to go through Pakistan. As a result, India’s influence in Afghanistan is increasing, while Pakistan’s role as the main transit hub for Afghan goods is being reduced.

Violent clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan

The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has been heavily affected by violent clashes along their shared border, especially following the Taliban’s return to power in Kabul.

A major source of conflict has been the Durand Line, a border that has long been a point of dispute between the two countries. This line has seen frequent clashes with insurgent activities and cross-border terrorism often fuelling the violence. Pakistan accuses Afghanistan of sheltering militants from groups like the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which are responsible for several attacks within Pakistan.

On the other hand, Afghanistan claims that Pakistan is supporting militant factions that destabilise its own territory. These violent confrontations have only deepened the mistrust between the two nations.

In December 2024, Pakistani airstrikes targeted villages in Afghanistan’s Paktika province, killing at least 46 civilians including women and children. These airstrikes were reportedly in retaliation for Taliban activities near the border.

In response, the Taliban launched attacks on Pakistani border checkpoints, resulting in the deaths of at least 19 Pakistani soldiers and three Afghan civilians. Furthermore, in September 2024, a Taliban security outpost construction in Kurram district led to Pakistani forces firing back, causing injuries to five Pakistani soldiers and the deaths of eight Taliban fighters​

Afghanistan as a battleground for influence

The increasing involvement of India in Afghanistan’s reconstruction efforts is seen by Islamabad as part of a larger strategy to weaken Pakistan’s influence in the region. The US’s withdrawal from Afghanistan left a significant power vacuum. Pakistan initially appeared to dominated Taliban leadership, who soon adopted Afghanistan-centric policies to Islamabad’s surprise.

Learning from its strategic mistake committed in the 1990s, India adopted a pragmatic approach towards Taliban, leading to further cornering of Pakistan and its spy agency ISI in Afghanistan. Pakistan views India’s growing role in Afghanistan not merely as a diplomatic shift but as a direct attempt to reshape the regional power dynamics.

India has focussed on utilising its soft power, offering aid, investing in infrastructure projects and engaging in multilateral diplomacy. This has allowed India to carve out a notable presence in Afghan geopolitics.

Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan now finds itself balancing competing interests from not only Pakistan but also increasingly from India, along with other geostrategic players such as China and Russia. For Pakistan, this evolving situation poses a major challenge as the prospect of Afghanistan aligning more closely with India threatens to diminish Pakistan’s standing as a regional power.