How the complicated US-Turkey relationship may change if Trump returns
With Donald Trump’s return to the presidency, there is potential for shifts in US-Turkey ties. The complex, historically erratic relationship between Ankara and Washington could see both continuity and new developments in the coming period.
While Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan shared a rapport during the Republican’s first term, their personal connection was not enough to resolve underlying issues that strained bilateral ties.
However, “Erdogan and Trump value direct negotiations and both have a similar approach to diplomacy, so they get along well with each other,” Omer Ozkizilcik, Ankara-based foreign policy and security analyst and non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, told Al Arabiya English. “This leader-to-leader diplomacy could help bridge long-standing disagreements.”
Trump’s election win has been welcomed enthusiastically in Turkey. Erdogan called the president-elect a friend and was among the first world leaders to congratulate him on his victory.
The Turkish leader told reporters on a flight back from a European summit in Budapest last week that he had invited Trump to visit Turkey in a phone call.
He said he hoped a visit would strengthen cooperation between Turkey and the United States and lead to a relationship “different from Trump’s previous term.”
Under Trump’s initial presidency, the two countries experienced significant rifts. These included Turkey’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, which triggered US sanctions and Turkey’s removal from the F-35 fighter jet program.
Washington maintained that the acquisition of Russian military technology posed a security risk incompatible with NATO’s defense systems.
Policy clashes over Syria, especially concerning Kurdish forces seen by Turkey as a security threat, also added to the tension.
Despite these disputes, Trump’s personal diplomacy kept communication channels open and softened confrontations at times.
‘Cautious optimism’
Trump’s return to office raises questions about whether past patterns will continue or change. Analysts express a sense of “cautious optimism” regarding the prospect for further improvements in US-Turkey relations. “But the unpredictable nature of Trump’s leadership always carries a risk,” noted Ozkizilcik.
Erdogan and Trump shared closer personal ties during Trump’s 2017–2021 term than Erdogan did with President Joe Biden.
The outgoing US president did not visit Turkey during his presidency, and a planned White House visit by Erdogan earlier this year was canceled with minimal explanation, highlighting the cool relations.
There is hope that under Trump, a resolution might be found concerning the US’ alliance with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a major Pentagon partner in the fight against ISIS in Syria.
“Trump may revisit the US stance in Syria with an accelerated time frame and could ultimately determine that Syria holds little strategic importance for the US, leading to a withdrawal of American troops and an end to the relationship with the Syrian-based YPG,” Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of the Center for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies (EDAM), told Al Arabiya English.
Ankara views the YPG, or People’s Defense Units, the armed wing of the Syrian Democratic Union Party, as the Syrian offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
The PKK, a designated terrorist organization, has been engaged in an armed struggle against the Turkish state since the 1980s, fighting for Kurdish independence. YPG fighters are a core component of the SDF.
This alignment has been a point of contention between the US and Turkey for over a decade, particularly since Washington maintains its alliance with the SDF while labeling the PKK as a terrorist group.
“If Trump wants to withdraw from Syria without allowing Iran to gain influence, he will need to work with Turkey,” said Ozkizilcik.
Another area of focus is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Despite its relationship with Russia, Turkey has played a delicate balancing act in the war in Ukraine, which Trump has pledged to end. Ankara has managed to maintain relations with both sides.
“Trump appears willing to engage with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to help facilitate a ceasefire and political settlement in Ukraine. This could open the door for Turkey’s involvement in the peace process, given Erdogan’s ability to engage in dialogue with the Russian and Ukrainian presidents,” said Ulgen.
On the S-400 issue, Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute, suggests a possible compromise between Erdogan and Trump could emerge.
“It’s improbable that Erdogan would return the system to Russia; such a move would undermine his strongman image, an important aspect of his domestic standing,” Cagaptay told Al Arabiya English. “A middle-ground solution might involve non-use rather than non-ownership, with Turkey establishing a verifiable mechanism to assure the US of its non-activation.”
“This could involve new US congressional legislation or a national security waiver from Trump, enabling Turkey to retain the system under strict monitoring,” he added.
Policy differences
Trump’s positions on NATO, Iran and the Gaza conflict are defined.
Turkey boasts the second-largest military in NATO and plays a key role in the Alliance’s southern flank. This prominence, though, may hold less significance for the president-elect, who has a history of expressing skepticism toward NATO – a stance that has unsettled transatlantic ties.
Turkey’s support for Hamas in its war with Israel presents another challenge for relations with the incoming administration, expected to align strongly with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Since October 2023, Turkey has been an outspoken critic of Israeli actions in Gaza, a position at odds with the US administration’s backing of Israel.
In addition, Trump’s approach to Iran could create friction with Turkish foreign policy, noted Ulgen.
“The strategy taken toward the ‘maximum pressure’ policy on Iran will be crucial for regional stability. Turkey, which seeks to avoid a military escalation between Iran and a US-backed Israel, favors a diplomatic resolution to Iran’s nuclear program,” he said. “However, policies similar to those from Trump’s previous administration could increase the risk of conflict, potentially making Iran a divisive issue between Ankara and Washington.”
During his time in office, Trump withdrew the US from the Iran nuclear deal, reimposed and escalated sanctions on Tehran and authorized the drone strike that killed General Qasem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force, Iran’s elite military unit.
In Biden’s tenure, Turkey adopted a more multipolar approach in its international relations. As Turkey is increasingly showing interest in engaging with non-Western blocs like BRICS, many argue that Trump may find new diplomatic pathways to explore. The BRICS group, which originally consisted of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has expanded to include Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Cagaptay believes the chemistry between the two presidents could narrow gaps.
“Turkey, a middle power with influence in the Western Balkans, Central Asia and Muslim-majority African countries, stands as an essential partner for the US in navigating great power competition, especially with Russia and China also in the equation,” he said.
Challenges posed by Trump’s cabinet picks
The incoming president is beginning to shape his foreign policy team, with early reports hinting at key selections. Florida Republicans Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Michael Waltz have been tapped for the roles of secretary of state and national security adviser, respectively.
These choices have already fueled discussions about the direction Trump’s second-term foreign policy might take. Both Rubio and Waltz are known for their hawkish stances.
Rubio’s nomination signals a confrontational approach toward Iran, echoing his support for Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and his consistent calls for a tougher policy on Tehran. Waltz, similarly, holds hardline views on China and Iran.
This lineup could as well spell challenges for US-Turkey relations. Rubio previously criticized Turkey’s 2019 military operations against Kurdish positions in Syria, while Waltz has advocated for a special visa initiative for Syrian Kurdish fighters, acknowledging their contribution in combating ISIS.
