Under the second Trump administration, Middle Eastern officials are thrilled about US connections.

Leaders from across the world congratulated Donald Trump on Wednesday for his re-election as US president, but officials in the Middle East were among the first to congratulate the soon-to-be 47th US commander-in-chief. The warm greetings reflect a shift in regional attitudes, as many officials in the region look forward to a return to US policies they found more predictable under the Trump administration.

In contrast, President Joe Biden’s first and only term was marred by a series of conflicts in the Middle East, including the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Iran-backed militias have all but closed international shipping lanes in the Red Sea, and US forces in the region have faced frequent attacks since the Gaza conflict reignited in 2023.

Biden’s first foreign policy moves, which targeted Gulf countries and included freezing weapons sales and recalibrating ties with allies, immediately strained relations with several Middle Eastern countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

The Houthis, a Yemeni group that Biden removed from the terror blacklist only to redesignate them two years later, are the same group that has been recklessly firing at commercial and military vessels transiting international waters in and around the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean.

Despite Biden’s efforts to restore ties in the final months of his term, the global perception of the US took a hit, especially after the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. This backdrop raises the question: What will Middle Eastern relations look like after Trump’s re-election?

GCC

For Gulf leaders, Trump’s return to office is seen as an opportunity to revive relationships that flourished during his first term. Ali Shihabi, a prominent Saudi analyst, predicts a continuation of strong ties between Trump and his Gulf counterparts. Shihabi noted that Trump’s “backbone,” in contrast to Biden’s approach, could compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to seek a resolution to the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon.

Trump broke with tradition for US presidents, making his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia after taking office in 2017.

That trip, combined with his administration’s firm stance on Iran and regional security, helped to cement his rapport with key Gulf leaders.

Abdulrahman al-Rashed, the chairman of Al Arabiya’s Editorial Board, called Trump’s re-election “good news in Riyadh,” praising the strong relationship between the US and Saudi leadership.

Salman Al-Ansari, another Saudi political commentator, said Riyadh was adept at working effectively with both Democrats and Republicans alike. “We hold Trump to a high standard due to his commitment to addressing numerous conflicts worldwide, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Europe,” Al-Ansari told Al Arabiya English.

He added that Riyadh also believes that US economic prosperity contributes to global economic prosperity. “In a nutshell, both Trump and MBS understand the language of business, and they both love their countries dearly. For that, I’m confident that they will make the Saudi-US relations great again,” Al-Ansari said.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed said he looked forward to continuing to work with “our partners in the US towards a future of opportunity, prosperity, and stability for all.”

Under the last Trump administration, historic peace deals were signed between Israel and the UAE in an agreement referred to as the Abraham Accords. Biden was unable to expand this and draw in new countries to the deal, which also included Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan.

Biden tried to forge a normalization deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel; however, these efforts were thwarted following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel. Israel’s responding bombardment of Gaza and the continued slaughter of thousands of civilians not affiliated with Hamas, coupled with the Netanyahu government’s refusal to acknowledge a Palestinian state, put subsequent efforts on ice.

A cold peace between the UAE and Israel was also witnessed due to the Israeli policies in Gaza and the West Bank. Egypt, Jordan, and Qatar – all three of which have indirect and direct ties with Israel – also grew frustrated with Israel as well as the failure of the US to put an end to the Gaza war early on.

Far-right extremists in Netanyahu’s government have also threatened to upend further any hopes for a two-state solution, which is a precondition for Saudi Arabia to establish diplomatic ties with Israel.

Prior to his election, Trump said he wanted Netanyahu to put an end to the Gaza War. Trump also promised to find a deal to end the Lebanon war.

Analysts believe Trump has and will use leverage against Netanyahu if the latter does not come up with a plan to end the wars in the region, which, if continued, risk putting US troops and interests at risk.

“Trump wants a peace deal in the region as his legacy, and those standing in his way may face his wrath,” Shihabi said.

With Trump focusing more on economic and military threats to the US from China, his team believes that diverting resources to the Middle East will make that more difficult.

This was made clear during a pre-election interview with Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, when he said that US interests will not always align with Israel’s, including a war with Iran that could distract from the China threat.

Additionally, Trump was frustrated with Netanyahu’s decision to pull out at the last minute of a joint operation to kill Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in 2020. The US went at it alone. Trump also grew upset with Netanyahu after the latter called to congratulate Joe Biden when he took office in 2021. Trump has claimed the 2020 election was “rigged.”

Separately, on Wednesday, Trump was phoned by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who highlighted the strong ties between Cairo and Washington during Trump’s first term. The US has historically had a close relationship with Egypt, particularly in the context of regional security and counterterrorism efforts.

Shifting Alliances: Growing Gulf ties with China

Under a second Trump administration, the Middle East will not only see a continued reconfiguration of US relations but also a closer alignment between Gulf countries and China. This shift is a response to the US’s inability, under both Trump and Biden, to meet Gulf allies’ security needs. As Iran’s regional influence has grown, particularly through its support for militias and non-state actors, Gulf countries have increasingly looked eastward for security and economic partnerships.

In recent years, China has capitalized on this void. The most notable example of China’s rising influence came in 2023 when Beijing brokered a historic rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This deal, which included an exchange of high-level visits, has led to a relative calm in the relationship between the two rivals, despite lingering tensions. While Saudi Arabia remains wary of Iran’s influence – especially through its backing of militias in Yemen, Iraq, and Lebanon – no direct attacks have occurred from Iranian soil against Gulf states since the Beijing agreement was signed. This stands in stark contrast to the provocations that marked previous years: during Trump’s first term, Iran attacked Saudi oil fields, and under Biden, the Houthis targeted the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi.

In both instances, the US response was muted. The failure to act after these attacks contributed to a growing sense of disillusionment in the Gulf, particularly in terms of the US’s ability or willingness to ensure the security of its allies. This also shattered the long-standing US-Gulf security arrangement, in which Gulf states traded access to energy resources and economic cooperation in exchange for US military protection. With these assurances increasingly uncertain, Gulf nations turned to alternative sources of support, with China offering both a diplomatic and economic lifeline.

Lebanon, Syria, Iraq

Trump will inherit the biggest conflict seen in years along the Lebanon-Israel border, including the fourth Israeli invasion. Apart from the war, Trump will also have to deal with decrepit state institutions in Lebanon, a corrupt political class, an economic collapse and a presidential vacuum. If there are to be any deals struck with Israel and the possibility of a stable Lebanon, these will need to be addressed.

Massad Boulos, whose son is married to Trump’s daughter, played a key role in the election campaign to court Arab-American voters. Boulos has said Trump will bring peace to Lebanon.

Lebanon’s former intel chief — currently an MP backed by Hezbollah and close to the Assad regime — said he preferred a Trump presidency because the former US president was not a fan of wars and is “more capable… of stopping the ongoing Israeli war against Gaza and Lebanon.”

On the flip side, a staunch Hezbollah critic, MP Samy Gemayel, said Lebanon was looking forward to Trump’s presidency. “We look forward to renewed US engagement with Lebanon and support for its sovereignty. As you mentioned in your letter to the Lebanese-American community, Lebanon deserves peace. It’s time to make it happen,” Gemayel said in a post on X.

He will also inherit a deal between the Biden administration and Baghdad that will see the end of an international coalition fighting ISIS. The agreement, signed between the US and Iraq last month, will also stipulate the withdrawal of American troops from certain parts of Iraq. It remains to be seen how Trump will deal with the agreement. He previously expressed an interest in withdrawing US troops from the Middle East after a widely reported call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in October 2019.

Dana Stroul, the Pentagon’s top official for the Middle East until last January, believes Trump will inherit a well-established political-military process to transition and reduce the US military footprint in Iraq and end the D-ISIS coalition. “The best course of action would be to avoid accelerating this transition and let the professionals do a responsible drawdown with the agreed end date of September 2025,” Stroul said.

The US military has stepped up its operations against ISIS targets in Syria and Iraq in recent weeks. Trump once famously declared the defeat of ISIS, yet the United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said the terror group was on track to doubling its attacks this year compared with those in 2023.

Dozens of US soldiers were wounded in recent anti-ISIS operations in Iraq and Syria.

Stroul warned that Trump could still try to strike a similar deal with Erdogan, “though this time he may be successful since the US military is already drawing down in Iraq and would need to leave some posture in place to support US forces in Syria.”

As for Syria, Trump unsuccessfully tried to reach out to the Assad regime to negotiate the release of American hostages held by Damascus, including journalist Austin Tice. And while US law prohibits the normalization of ties with the Assad regime, Trump may look to strike some arrangement with Bashar al-Assad in return for his crackdown on Iranian weapons smuggling to Lebanese Hezbollah and curbing Captagon trafficking throughout the region.

“Arab governments in the region are already turning away from US policy on Syria by normalizing with Assad,” Stroul said. “They believe it is in their interest to engage in Syria as a way to blunt destabilizing Iranian influence.”

The Arab League has normalized ties with the Assad regime after the yearslong war there and his victory over nationwide protests.

“But Trump could try to get Arab partners to take more action against Iran, and in support of Lebanon, in exchange for not enforcing Syria sanctions,” Stroul added.

The Washington Post reported on Tuesday that the Biden administration was willing to make such a deal with the Assad regime if he limited Iranian resupply operations to Hezbollah.

As Trump embarks on his second term, the region awaits his approach with cautious optimism. While Gulf leaders are eager to renew the strong ties established during Trump’s first term, countries like Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq will present significant hurdles. Trump’s ability to navigate these challenges while balancing the interests of regional powers, managing the complex Israel-Palestine dynamic, and addressing the growing Iranian threat will determine the future trajectory of US-Middle East relations.

Though Trump’s “America First” foreign policy may continue to emphasize reducing the US military presence in the region, his administration’s legacy will hinge on its ability to secure peace deals and contain regional threats without becoming bogged down in the Middle East’s complex web of conflicts.