Opportunities and challenges for Pakistan following the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan.
Afghanistan and Pakistan’s relationship remained icy due to different ups and downs, but due to different dynamics like common border, history, language, cultural and religious aspects make the two neighbours always united. The recent Taliban takeover is a hot burning issue, and the discussions because of the humanitarian crisis prevailing in Afghanistan would not confine Afghanistan but would have spillover effects on the neighbouring countries especially Pakistan and afterwards slowly and gradually on to the whole world. In the traditional discourse issue of Afghanistan was treated as a political and military issue but later on, it was practically discovered that the spillover generated from the political and military sectors was creating negative impacts on the economic, societal and environmental sectors. The study aims to analyze the issue of the takeover Taliban from the lens of comprehensive security and how all sectors are interlinked due to the takeover all sectors of security societal, economic, military, political and environmental are going to be affected through the theoretical framework of human security.
Background of the research:
In Afghanistan US fought two wars one was a proxy war (1979-1989) in which a notion of victory was achieved and the other one was the direct war after 9/11 (2001-2021) which was a defeat. America has used all its power and spent billions and trillions of dollars to strengthen the Afghan army but after the withdrawal of American troops, the Afghan army collapsed resulting in the sudden takeover of the Taliban. The world was in a state of shock now what was going to happen next, questions were raised like “Is Afghanistan on the brink of civil war” The international community’s stance is that they are looking towards the Taliban that how much they are going to strengthen the human and women rights, then they are going to recognize them, But Taliban take over is a matter of serious concerns for Pakistan because both are neighbouring and in history Pakistan already paid a huge price and this time also going to bring repercussions for Pakistan, If proper measured are not taken. As the takeover of the Taliban is a recent event so there is no definite research being done, as the world is right now monitoring the Taliban regime to how much they are going to fulfil their promises.
How it’s a Global concern? The rise of the Taliban has generated fear around the whole world, people in Afghanistan are trying to escape from the Afghanistan and want to find a safe place to live, Refugees from Afghanistan are moving to Europe, south Asian states, and Central Asian states. These unemployed and unregistered refugees who have nothing to eat would indulge themselves in terrorist activities. Post 9/11, the emergence of terrorism in Afghanistan didn’t confine itself to Afghanistan but had spillover effects on the neighbour central Asia states the emergence of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Islamic Movement of Turkestan, Hizb-ut-Tahrir al-Islami (HT) and Islamic Renaissance Party (IRP) and its threats to central Asia. All leaders were somehow affiliated with Afghanistan and were inspired by the ideology of Osama bin Laden. Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS). Similarly in the Middle Eastern region in Pakistan too. These terrorist movements did not remain in the Central Asian states or Middle Eastern states but also had crossover effects on the Western world attack of 9/11 is an example similarly attacks in the South Asian states in India parliament attack, claimed that LET and JEM were involved. From these examples one can conclude that terrorism is not a threat to a single entity but a threat to the international world, Similarly, the refugees who are coming out from Afghanistan and are trying to get the safe places moving towards European countries hence the European countries, who are also worried about the movement of these refugees because they can create serious repercussions as created on Pakistan. These refugees are unemployed they don’t have jobs so they have a plethora of problems. As per the theory of Barry Buzan’sonal’s security complex theory, a world is connected and regions are connected that’s why right now the international communities are worried about the future of Afghanistan.
Theoretical framework:
Human security theory because the impacts emerging from Afghanistan would be creating a humanitarian crisis, migrants and refugees coming towards Pakistan impact on our local markets, similarly there are more than one million unregistered refugees who found to be involved in crimes. Similarly, they are going to insight into the identity crisis in Pakistan. Refugees are one of the causes of instability in the province than KPK government has decided to send refugees back to their native state due to their involvement in anti-state activities Islamic extremism could increase further due to different interpretations of Islam by these people can lead towards militancy in Pakistan. Also could impact women’s empowerment. The Afghan War introduced Kalashnikov culture to Pakistan. Unemployed refugees started smuggling illegal weapons that contributed to ethnic and tribal clashes and increased the rate of crimes. It was reported that from 1981 to 1991, 481,948 crimes were committed, of which 361,461 were committed by Refugees creating an a a societal security dilemma.
Also, the modern system theory by Immanuel Wallerstein could be applicable, main assumptions of the theory are that the world is interconnected, states are closely connected and functionally related to each other, the world is divided into different systems and components and subsystems and in order function smoothly, so if there is any chaotic situation in Afghanistan how the world is going to function smoothly? AS Afghanistan plays an important role in the world during its strategic location and the transit routes which it provides.
Securitization of the issue:
Post 9/11 Afghan issue in the discourse was securitized as a political issue and traditional approaches were used to counter the threats emancipating from Afghanistan various operations were conducted not only in Afghanistan but in Pakistan too i.e (resolute support mission) In Pakistan (Operation Zarb e Azab, Al Mizan, Rah e Haq, rast, Zarb e Azab, Raad ul Fasad) were conducted VIA military. Afghanistan issue was securitized not only by the states but by the national security document of the USA in which they stated that Afghanistan is a threat towards international peace and stability and to the other democracies in the world but later on, after it was realized that Afghanistan issue is not something a political issue but it’s something which is affecting all of the security sectors. It was having impacts on society, was threatening the political regime was having military economic and environmental impacts. Now this issue has been securitized from the lens of each perspective of comprehensive security issues getting securitized by the neighbouring countries whether it’s Pakistan or other neighbouring countries. Also being securitized by the United Nations, Higher officials and think tanks.
Comprehensive security:
Societal security:
Two decades of ar which remained in Afghanistan gave birth to the ‘Kalashnikov culture’ in Pakistan. According to local sources, almost 5000 refugees had been crossing the border into Pakistan, until August 15, Afghan refugees in Pakistan are the biggest security issues for Pakistan which are increased crime rates, murders ransom and other social problems like child labour, prostitution, Drug trade and Alcoholism. Pakistan shares the largest border with Afghanistan which makes it easy for the Afghanistan people to cross the border. People in Afghanistan are terrified of the Taliban regime, Pakistan being a neighbour of Afghanistan is hosting large number of refugees. According to the UNHCR report predicts that one million unregistered refugees in Pakistan are more involved in the crimes. As it’s a little bit difficult to identify them. These refugees are not formally incorporated into the society. Unemployed and unregistered refugees are going to create impacts on our local labour market by accelerating the competition as they are ready to work at a cheaper wage. These refugees are deprived of basic rights like health care, and education and don’t have even proper verification cards because Pakistan already have a weak economy and there are lack of teachers. Refuges can also create an identity crisis, inside Pakistan as there is also the prevalence of the Pashtunstan issue, which might further accelerate the conflicts in Pakistan. In Baluchistan people also had the feeling of disenfranchisement that due to the heavy influx of refugees their identity had been threatened and one day they would be left in the minority.
Economic Sector:
It has been researched that Afghan refugees in Pakistan and the local citizens compete for resources water land and property, similarly later on this competition was converted by adding some more factors like education energy transportation employment and further increasing the frustration and anger in the KPK and Baluchistan, they claim that they are deprived of basic human rights due to the afghani presence in the region bring inflation and deflation and their traders affecting our informal economy of Pakistan by not paying up the taxes. Afghans brought their camel, cows and donkeys and the local market of meat and milk was disturbed as they were selling them at lower prices disturbing the source of earnings of Pakistan’s local markets. Refugees were found to be involved in terrorism. Pakistan might get into the grey list of FATF. Then it would be a great challenge for Pakistan to attract international investment. No country would be ready to invest in a country where the issue of terrorism and extremist events are being witnessed. Similarly, any sort of mishandling with the Taliban might threaten the CPEC especially AF-CPEC, and other economic projects with Afghanistan. This can only materialize with the help of Afghanistan, ii.e.AF-CPEC, it’s only possible when there is stability in Afghanistan. This would provide a gateway and new trade opportunities for Pakistan in EURASIA and Africa. Similarly, Pakistan has some other economic projects with Afghanistan which might be affected due to any sort of instability. Exports to Afghanistan were US$870.86 Million in 2020, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. There are so many economic trade and pipeline projects between Afghanistan and Pakistan like CASA-1000, the Pakistan-Afghanistan Iran pipeline, Afghanistan-Pakistan Agreementt (APTTA), these all projects worth of millions, dollars could disrupt any sort of instability between the two countries. When there is a rise in serious extremism and radicalism activities in Pakistan could attract international investment due to the chaotic situation in Pakistan.
Political sector:
In Pakistan, there are already political divisions, religious movements like TLP are going on, there are ideological factions in Pakistan Shia vs. Sunni, presence of local militias in Pakistan which has somehow reduced due to the military operations but can re-emerge if there is a presence of refugees emerges again. Pakistan has already witnessed internal strife due to the weak political structure, institutional failure and the lack of definite policy towards Afghanistan. In Pakistan, there are so many groups that are ideologically affiliated with the Afghan groups so they might lead towards a chaotic situation for power. If Pakistan is again found to be funding the terrorist network due to the presence of the refugees, Pakistan could be again added to the grey left list of FATF. In Pakistan, there is internal fragmentation, due to the KPK, Baluchistan, Kashmir, and GB issues. They have feelings of alienation these elements could further be manipulated and create political disruption. Any sort of event like 9/11 is going to happen again leading towards intervention in Pakistan because world’s perception that Pakistan is providing safe havens for terrorists, due to this dirty war millions of people have faced Interstate migration in Takistan the tribal areas the school were destroyed the hospitals were bombarded, terrorists homes in the in the border of Pakistan and Afghanistan and which were logistically and financially supported by the government of Pakistan they should be diplomatically isolated, Baluchistan people claims that they are being marginalized due to these refugees because they are changing the demography and as a result they will be in minority and government is making no policy, resulting into the political conflict within the Pakistan.
Military aspect:
Pakistan had paid a huge price for that war which was imposed on the Pakistan. There is a territorial dispute, and historical animosities between the two similarly the threat from the Indian side is also playing a vital role in this region, there is an arms race going on in this region, and transnational organized crimes have evolved due to the presence of Afghan refugees. Take over Taliban and resurgence of TTP in Pakistan is witnessed. Increase in the multiple attacks on Pakistani security forces by the Taliban and on civilians. Pakistan sacrificed 70,000 lives and suffered approximately $100 billion in economic losses. The rise of such extreme and terrorist events in Pakistan might affect the deradicalization program, In Pakistan there are already radical tendencies which could further rise and give birth to incidents like LaaL-Masjid, As so many religious personalities from the laal- masjid stood up against the government to recognize the Taliban government. Similarly, Pakistan could lose its position in the FATF again. Pakistan and Afghanistan have the Durand line issue which could further tense the situation in case of any mishandling with the Taliban. Similarly, the formation of Indian consulates near the Pakistan border due to the miscalculated geopolitics by the USA also created security dilemmas for Pakistan. Any sort of border issue or Indian dilemma due to Afghanistan could lead towards the military and Taliban standoff between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Environmental sector:
Indian government’s aim to build the Shahtoot Dam on the Kabul River has upset Pakistan, which would significantly reduce water flowing into its northern areas and beyond. These refugees could create implications for the environmental sector because various spread of diseases can occur. Similarly, different diseases could enter Pakistan from the border, especially in the provinces of KPK and Baluchistan, Pakistan was unable to eradicate polio because the Afghan migrant’s majority of the Afghani who crossed the border, and their children were unvaccinated due to which Pakistan was unable to counter poliomyelitis, these refugees also need food, shelter, water, to fulfil their necessities and which can result into environmental degradation because they require the places to live resulting into the land erosion and land fertility could be affected most of the refugees are involved in cutting trees the cost to have the safe shelter to live as we know that how trees are important for our environment they attract rain they provide a safe and clean air similarly there is no proper mechanism for the disposal of the human waste disposal which is being disposed openly due to which there are chances of spread of many diseases. Refugees brought with them more than two million livestock grazing near the camps families fulfilled their basic needs resulting in frogging and soil erosion, deforestation, firewood depletion, and water pollution. Human disposable waste could pollute the groundwater. Different reports by the United Nations and the health offices are that most of the refugees are involved in drugs due to the trauma and Psychological stress they have lost their families their land and the poverty. The use of unhygienic syringes while doing drugs is another cause of spreading AIDS(HIV).
Way forwards:
Pakistan and Afghanistan both need to develop friendly relations because any sort of mishandling with the Taliban would generate negative externalities on Pakistan, Use of hard power is never going to work, so trust building in the region is extremely important, There is a need to engage with Taliban, discussing with the official representative from Afghanistan and Pakistan, similarly, Pashtun representatives should be added, role of institutions and think tanks is extremely important. Working on the border issue, and refugee issue both can work on bilateral issues like how to counter the negative sentiments prevailing between the citizens of the two neighbours, How to address the issue of terrorism, TTP issue which was involved in the deadly attacks on Pakistan soil. Issues of climate change, narcotics and drug trade. Pakistan and Afghanistan could work to enhance trade and connectivity, and Afghanistan can provide Pakistan shortest route to the Central Asian states. Both states now can enhance cross-border cultural ties. Military-to-military and police officials who served during the war times could do joint training.
Conclusion:
Taliban takeover is raising serious issues for Pakistan because there is a high influx of refugees as both share a common border, similarly humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan would generate negative spillover effects on Pakistan and it’s all sectors of security economic, societal, political, military and environmental. So Pakistan needs to have very balanced policies while dealing with the Afghan Taliban, there is a need to have an inclusive approach because any sort of vacuum could lead toward civil war in Afghanistan and its negative repercussions on Pakistan’s societal, economic, political, military, and environmental sectors of Pakistan.
