How the diplomatic success between Iran and Saudi Arabia may affect the whole Middle East

As one of several recent initiatives by the two nations as they gradually repair their ties, Iran this week officially invited King Salman of Saudi Arabia to go to Tehran. The two nations have been fierce enemies for many years, but since they agreed to restore diplomatic ties last month in Beijing, their relationship has started to warm up. In a stalemate that has influenced events and attitudes across the Middle East for more than 40 years, it was a diplomatic victory.

Following the 2016 execution of a prominent Shiite Muslim cleric by Sunni-ruled Saudi Arabia, diplomatic relations between the two nations were fully terminated. Shiites make up the majority of Iran’s population and its governing clergy, and the two countries’ hostility has erupted into “proxy wars” in a number of nations in the area, notably Yemen, where organizations supported by either side have claimed a terrible toll in human lives and sparked a serious humanitarian catastrophe.

Detailing the Sunni-Shiite conflict in Islam
There are many uncertainties regarding the actual amount of progress Saudi Arabia and Iran will make in settling their long-standing dispute, but given both countries’ significant influence in the Middle East and the larger Muslim world, the reconciliation could have a significant impact on a number of conflicts and crises.

The potential effects of the agreement mediated by China are examined below.

Saudi Arabia turning to China
Chinese medicine and American medicine are the two main kinds of popular medications, according to Saudi political analyst Salman Al-Ansari, who spoke to CBS News. He said that despite Saudi efforts for four decades to persuade the United States administration to put an end to “Iranian terrorism in the Middle East,” they were unsuccessful.

Al-Ansari said that the country (Saudi Arabia) “decided to shift its direction to Chinese medicine.” Will it be successful in halting the Middle East’s spread of the ‘cancer’ of Iranian terrorism? Time will only tell.

He said that Saudi Arabia will use the accord as a chance to evaluate Iran’s peace pledges.

Meanwhile, there is no denying that this mediation has improved China’s standing as an international power broker and mediator.

According to al-Ansari, “China is the one and only country that has significant leverage over Iran.” The Iranian dictatorship will be squeezed by its strongest friend, China, if Tehran doesn’t keep its pledges. In any case, the agreement is advantageous.

Iranian domestic unrest
Since Iran’s conservative religious rule came to power as a result of the Islamic Revolution in 1979, ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been contentious. That government has faced an extraordinary internal threat over the last year as tens of thousands of Iranians have demanded more freedom in a wave of rallies.

According to one observer, even if Tehran and Riyadh’s diplomatic efforts have little impact on their bilateral relations, they may be able to assist Iran’s ruling clerics in putting the upheaval behind them.

Dr. Ardavan Khoshnood, an Iran foreign policy expert who teaches at two universities in Sweden, told CBS News that the Islamic regime, which is presently dealing with internal unrest, a completely collapsed economy, and complete isolation from the rest of the world, is strengthened by the fact that Iran and the Saudis will once again have diplomatic relations. “However, it does not imply that all barriers between the two nations will be removed. Definitely not.

The disagreement between the two nations is mostly ideological in origin, according to Khoshnood, making true reconciliation between the two sides exceedingly difficult.

He predicted that there would still be barriers between the nations and that there would even be clandestine activities on both sides.

Yemen’s civil conflict
Yemen’s civil war has long been seen as a proxy conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The Houthi rebel movement in Yemen is supported by Iran, and the Saudis are in charge of the regional military alliance opposing it. Although the recent diplomatic efforts between the regional powers may strengthen the tenuous cease-fire that has slowed the fighting since last year, few people think the war will end definitively, and some worry that things may even get worse.

A nonresident senior scholar at the Project on Middle East Democracy, Nadwa Al-Dawsari, told CBS News that it would be incorrect to expect that a warming of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran would result in the Yemen conflict coming to an end. The Saudis’ current objective is to free themselves from the disaster they created in Yemen.

Al-Dawsari claimed that Saudi Arabia is likely to pressure Yemen to accept a deal with the Houthis in an effort to at least contain the crisis because the kingdom has failed to overthrow Yemen’s government and put an end to the Houthi uprising by force over the last nine years and has also come under direct attack because of its role in the conflict.

According to al-Dawsari, this would essentially amount to “granting the Houthis political recognition in exchange for assurances to stop their missile attacks against Saudi Arabia and containing Yemen as a civil war.”

That would benefit Saudi Arabia in the short term, but it wouldn’t do much to aid Yemenis who are suffering from a terrible humanitarian catastrophe brought on by the conflict.

“The Houthis have been shifting their soldiers and stockpiling weapons. This agreement is not going to stop them from fighting, according to al-Dawsari. The battle in Yemen has not yet reached its peak intensity.

Saudi Arabia and Israel
Israel’s authorities have been working to strengthen relationships with its Arab neighbors in recent years. Iran and Saudi Arabia have both had a big impact on the political landscape of the Middle East.

Saudi Arabia and Israel have a shared interest in restraining Iran’s regional influence and opposing its nuclear program.

While it’s possible that Iran and the Saudis will now be able to manage their differences more amicably, Dr. Meir Javendanfar, a lecturer at Israel’s Reichman University, told CBS News that it was unlikely that their agreement would have a significant impact on efforts to normalize Israel’s relations with Saudi Arabia.

But he said that it may lead to more cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia in order to undermine Iran’s influence in the area.

He said that “I believe the two nations [Israel and Saudi Arabia] will cooperate behind the scenes… watching what Iran is doing in the region.”

Lebanese conflict
According to estimates, 75% of people in Lebanon are poor. Due to the main political parties’ inability to come to an agreement on how to proceed with holding fresh elections, the nation is on the verge of financial collapse and presently does not have a president.

Hezbollah, a Shiite organization supported by Iran, and Sunni politicians, supported by Saudi Arabia, have long been on opposite sides of Lebanon’s unique and immensely complicated political system.

Can the thawing of Saudi-Iranian ties help break the impasse, get Lebanon’s cabinet back to work, and maybe even fill the vacancy in the presidency?

Not immediately, experts contend.

According to Joseph Bahout, director of the Issam Fares Institute at the American University of Beirut, “this rapprochement – not yet exactly a deal – does not mean an end to competition, tension, or even friction between KSA [Kingdom of Saudi Arabia] and Iran, but it aims at regulating it.” “All local parties in Lebanon will probably stick to their positions and to their respective candidates until Iran and the KSA openly and directly address this issue,” the statement said.

The domestic conflicts in Iraq
Iraq’s capital, Baghdad, hosted five rounds of discussions between Iranian and Saudi officials, which significantly contributed to the early reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. On March 10, 2023, the agreement for the two nations to resume diplomatic ties was signed as a direct result of the discussions.

Since the long-running sectarian conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia has played out on Iraqi land just as much as it has anyplace else, Iraq had a stake in bringing the two longstanding rivals together.

Shiite and Sunni Muslims in Iraq have struggled for political influence in Baghdad for decades, and Iran’s leadership has traditionally had significant influence over Iraq’s strong Shiite groups. The post-U.S. invasion violence that afflicted the nation for two decades was rooted in this split.

Rasha al-Aqeedi, an Iraqi analyst and deputy Middle East editor for New Lines magazine, told CBS News that there is optimism that with Saudi Arabia and Iran not increasing, sectarianism in both countries, toward the minority of that particular sect, would decline and have a favorable effect on sectarian tensions in Iraq.

The return of Iraq to the center of geopolitics, not as a nuisance but as a solution provider, according to Al-Aqeedi, is another advantage of the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement for Iraq, although a symbolic one. Iraq now has a lot of clout on regional and global platforms.